Scenario Planning
proposedAlso known as: The Art of the Long View · Scenario Thinking
When the future is too uncertain to bet on, prepare across several plausible futures and keep your options open.
A method for acting under deep uncertainty without committing prematurely: construct a few divergent but plausible future scenarios, identify which moves are robust across them, and watch for signposts that tell you which world is arriving. Underpins a disciplined 'hold and prepare' posture.
Core concepts
ScenariosDriving ForcesSignpostsRobust Options
Best when
- The environment is too uncertain for a single forecast
- You want to stay ready without committing the company yet
Watch-outs
- Scenarios can become an end in themselves; they must drive concrete signposts and triggers